Elderly Population Scenarios for North East Health District:
Modeling is not an exact science but an iterative and reflect effort


Nipawin - May 28, 2001 - By: Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis


In 1995, realizing that Saskatchewan Health was using uncommunicative research to direct
health reform I wrote the paper "A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of
Saskatchewan Health District Boards: Working Example for Prairie West Health District(1)."
In this paper, I used the simple regression analysis method to forecast the elderly
population for the Prairie West Health District, and the rationale for using this method
was two fold; firstly, I didn't know any better method, and secondly, I wanted to use a
method which could readily be understood and used by anybody with a bit of knowledge
in spreadsheet programming.




Today we have the System Dynamics methodology to model complex changing systems(2);
however, our research institutions have been reluctant to abandon the highly manipulative
tools of "evidence based statistical analysis(3)" and have continued with their protective
fashion, covering up important assumptions, using data selectively to support their
prejudices, and acting like an oracle(4)(5).



not an

Modeling population projections is not an exact science but an iterative and reflective
effort shared by all the concerned parties. Today, as I reflect on the population study
for the North East Health District, I understand the importance to know a better
projection for the future elderly population of the North East Health District for
health planning.



one year

Therefore, I have the further insight to consider age grouping of one year rather than
five years for people with age over sixty-four. Sheena MacRae, Information Analyst
with Saskatchewan Health, provided me with the additional information I required for
this elderly population scenarios for the NEHD district and the results have been tabulated.


A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of Saskatchewan Health District Boards by Mario deSantis, February 1995 http://www3.sk.sympatico.ca/desam/paper-popmodel-regr.htm


System Dynamics Society http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/


If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts'--quote by Albert Einstein


Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, section 'Protective versus Reflective Modelling,' page 858 http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/sterman/


The incredible abuse of Saskatchewan No-Fault insurance, by Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis, May 28, 2000