United States election in November and Iraq
Thunder Bay, Ontario - Thursday, October 10, 2002 - by: Richard P. Neumann
Democrats onside	There is no doubt that domestic politics is playing into the rhetoric regarding the position of the Americans visa-vis Iraq. I do not believe, however, that the issue is strong enough to significantly affect the President's position. Most Democrats (with a few exceptions) are also onside on this issue and it is not playing locally because of this. There remains no viable Democratic leadership alternative at this time, and what there is appears to be siding with the President. Kennedy and Gore don't count too much right now.
Republicans hold Senate	The second point is, that most of what I've read, indicates the Republicans will likely hold their position in the Senate, but may lose the House (not at all certain). As they do not hold the House currently, it would not be a disaster for them.
appears Presidential	On the other hand, Americans do have a habit of rallying around a President during times of conflict and there is certainly an opinion in the circle around the President that he appears most Presidential when on the offence on this issue.
Iraq war in six months	I suspect that it is very likely there will be a military action in Iraq within the next six months, but that it will not occur without UN backing of some sort. Saddam will likely continue to play his compliance/non-compliance game and may even force an American buildup before opening all sites to inspection. By then, with troops in place, it will be too little too late.
involve Israel	Even more likely is that once it becomes clear that an attack is imminent, he will attempt to draw Israel into the conflict through the use of weapons against them directly (chemical or non Scuds). He will seek to destabilize the region as much as possible before any imminent conflict, and that will likely be his undoing by solidifying the UN support for military intervention and by pushing moderate Arab states into the fold.
Liberals see picture	Just my opinion, but I'd guess Bush gets a modified coalition with UN backing and a war in the next six months, and that is why you are now seeing the Liberals beginning to change their tune. No point in opposing the Americans if you're on your own entirely...
	Richard Neumann
Reference:
	Complete text of the US president's speech in Cinncinati on October 7, 2002 dealing with Iraq
Retrun to Ensign - Return to Saskatchewan News   This page is a story posted on Ensign and/or Saskatchewan News, both of which are daily web sites offering a variety of material from scenic images, political commentary, information and news. These publications are the work of Faster Than Light Communications . If you would like to comment on this story or you wish to contact the editor of these sites please send us email.   Editor : Timothy W. Shire Faster Than Light Communication Box 1776, Tisdale, Saskatchewan, Canada, S0E 1T0 306 873 2004