take this as a warning
FTLComm - Tisdale - Friday, September 21, 2007

There is no doubt that during the Chretien years and the tight budgets by Paul Martin, Canadians suffered from the policies that have created the Canadian economic climate of today. Surplus federal budgets and a healthy economy based on resources and a trade surplus. Those factors have allowed the Canadian dollar to hold its own, while our chief trading partner is seeing its money going steadily down the slippery slope. In order to get to this point, we Canadians paid high taxes and saw our government do less and less for the money we paid out, but the cost also included unemployment and reduced health care.

I have noticed, that the CBC, the corporation truly does reflect the views of the people of this country, has been pretty smug and pleased that the Canadian dollar has reach parity, for indeed, we know our dollar has been undervalued for many years. Deliberate federal government policy has kept the dollar down, to cope with providing manufacturing jobs in Ontario and Quebec as that part of the country controls the economy of the country and generally gets what it wants. Now the manufacturing sector is beginning to howl a bit and the big bite is still months away.

It is my duty to inform you, that not only the Canadian economy, but that of the world is in grave danger. George Bush and his people, the same ones who elected him to office, have been spending money they don't have, on a scale that boggles the mind, while at the same time, they have been paying less taxes and going deeper and deeper into government and person debt. Things are actually far worse than any one will admit because admission of the problem, will in itself, accelerate the approaching disaster. The economic experts you have been seeing on television and hearing on the radio are lying through their tightly gritting teeth, as they well know the devaluation of the US dollar has only just begun.

Watch closely to see if the Canadian dollar moves, over the next two weeks at the same rate and slips beyond $1.05. When that happens, we will know that the bottom for the US dollar is no longer in sight, but it will slip into free fall, until it reaches something close to its natural value of about 58¢. But just consider the forces that will make that happen.

Arab countries have already moved from pegging the US dollar and are pulling their money out of the US bond market. The US depends on foreign investment to pay for its war, over spending and ridiculously low interest rate, while maintaining the lowest tax rate of all developed countries. Japan and China hold the truly massive amounts of US debt and have been propping up the US economy because they need the customer to buy their manufactured goods. But, there are limits and those could arrive much sooner than later.

Inflation has been identified as a real problem in Canada for decades and our Bank of Canada is going to raise interest rates to curb consumer spending, that is a certainty and money will flow into Canadian funds and increase its value.


Meanwhile, the consequences for the big guy are dire, but as we have seen in the past, if it hurts the US it hurts everyone. In October 29, 1929 crazy speculation on all sorts of capital projects began a tumble in the stock market that turned into a world wide depression. As far as I can see, there is absolutely nothing that is now in place to prevent a similar financial catastrophe with similar results. America with its huge population and willingness to sacrifice large portions of it to abject poverty, will tough it out and in four years emerge with a bustle. But for everyone else, especially those economies which depend on American consumer purchases to fuel their economies, the pain could be amazingly tragic.

So, what can you do to protect your family and your earning power. First and foremost don't spend a dime you have to borrow. In fact, look for ways to cover yourself when the value of money is all but gone. Not a good time to make any major purchases that involve commitment to any form of debt. Consider that you are carrying your family on your back and walking on explosive eggs, be careful.

If you have commodities that might be considered future income, like grain in the bin, convert that to something that you will be able to use when things get tough. A collapsing US economy will mean collapsing commodity prices worldwide. Just check the history books and discover the reason we have a Canadian Wheat Board. I am certain if you think this through, you will realise that for the next two months, caution with your finances is an understatement.

One of the most dire things to be concerned about is the fact that in 1929 there was trade, but not on the global scale of today. If the US economy is caught in a serious recession, or even a minor depression, the forces worldwide that could trigger addition military conflict would be certainly unleashed. Rethink what happened in the Great Depression.

The disaster of the financial crash hurt, but did not cripple the US, Canada and Britain but Germany caught in the aftermath of defeat from World War One reacted in a spasm so that by 1935 Hitler and his rabble were in power and by 1935 Japan had already begun its war on China. In 1939 the world was plunged into war, with the exception of the United States who laughed off the depression and the suffering of the world, until they were themselves attacked in 1941.

A world depression would be painful to Americans today, but they would get through it, but other desperate parts of the world would move to the edge, where death by war, or starvation, would be the only two available choices.

Realise immediately that the position of monitory parity is not the end of anything but rather the beginning of a huge economic and financial re-adjustment. Indeed there may be no recession in the United States but something like this does not end quickly. The US Federal Reserve diddled with their interest rate to solve an internal problem and that has to produce external ramifications. By the way if you are one of those clever folks with a US bank account clean that baby out by Thursday of next week.

Timothy W. Shire

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Editor : Timothy W. Shire
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